Amplios

Topics 1: Rapid Future Scanning

To assist our clients to quickly gain an understanding of Future Scanning and to communicate the benefits to their colleagues, we have included in this web page the basic elements of Future Scanning and some hints as to how to use them.

The basic steps are as follows:

1. Define your business problem

2. Perform a web search to find articles, papers and documents related to the problem. It is useful to structure the search keywords alog lines like: Region/Industry/Future Scanning Element.

3. The recommended Future Scanning Elements are:

   1. Social
   2. Methodological 
   3. Technological 
   4. Economic
   5. Natural Resources
   6. Political
   7. Legal
   8. International
   9. Demographic
   10. Environmental
4. Thus the first entry into the web search engine may be: Global Banking Social
5. Download the documents of interest
6. Save them into a series of file folders bearing the 10 element names above.
7. Rename the downloaded document to register its place in the future scanning database, using a number sequence: eg     File name " FS Soc 001 CSR in Banking" This should be a pdf file.
8. Prepare a brief abstract of the document
9. Save this under the same file name, but as a .doc file
10. After a short time, you should have a database of up to 100 documents in each Future Scanning Element folder

Once you have reached this stage, contact Amplios regarding the technique for converting the selected documents into Event Clusters, then portraying these in the Future Scanning Rotor. From there, we develop the Four Alternate Futures and write the Scenario Stories to communicate them to your colleagues.

Many approaches to Future Scanning approach the topic almost entirely from a technology point of view. However, human needs are much more complex than that, which is why the Amplios techniques starts from its Social base in its elements of research. The argument is something like this:

1. People have needs (refer to Maslow's Hierarchy of Human Needs)
2. Needs are usually firstly satisfied by a method
3. Methods are then supported by technology
4. The above leads to economic activity and improved quality of life
5. This entails use of our natural resources
6. The above leads to political issues regarding minority rights, etc
7. This calls for legal solutions to reward the desired behavior, penalize the undesired behavior
8. Success in the above encroaches across national borders requiring diplomacy between different cultures and rules systems
9. Success or failure in the above causes people to relocate to better their standard of living and return surplus lands to nature
10. Success or failure in the above impacts the environment, causing pollution, etc, which then causes a social need for a better way.
11. Back to the top

The techniques described here are suitable for rapid development of an understanding of future scanning. For an internationally proven best practice solution for large organizations, please visit Shaping Tomorrow .

If you are interested in the possibilities of this line of thinking, contact us regarding our "Survive the Recession" workshop. This is planned to be run in many capital cities in 2010